Correcting mistakes in Indo-Pacific Region

Pic source: Wiki

An unstructured commentary on developments in the extended neighborhood in Indo-Pacific Region. Let us take a few key countries.

Australia

If you think, India has done well in correcting mistakes of the past with decisive steps with long term strategic goals as pivot. Think again. My impartial view is, Australia is equally better. They've done quite well in a short term & in a structured way.

Would you believe, if I tell you, it is nothing short of miracle, that a country as big as Australia escaped by a whisker from clutches of China. It was a 360° assault on Sovereignty. Now This may sound a hype or even a myth. But, that's what quite happened. Let me give you a few key pointers without going into the details.

China was in the midst of making Australia (!!??) as their vassal - just as they were trying with India. Why would they do that? Very simple answer is, it is always good to have two large democracies as vassal of an authoritarian regime to get all their 'acts' validated in the region. The proverbial, "plausible deniability" would be much easier if you have democracies by their side. China can always make the argument, "Hey, but free and fair democracies in the region support our actions." 

Now that we know the motive, does it end here, what is the ultimate goal? By sending thousands of students every year to Australian universities, China has also tried to influence students from other countries who study in those very universities. Mind you, these other country students include those from India, Singapore & Pacific islands. These students come from either poor or upper-middle class families. Quite humble souls. They're there to just to study & go about their business. By sending in more numbers per university, Chinese students were always more in number & roam around in one pack, than those from free thinking democracies who are tough to gel as one pack. This started something what I call, "the inflicted Stockholm syndrome" artificially. To such an extent that recently, an Indian professor invited severe backlash from Chinese students when he referred to Taiwan. Yes, this happen. Some reports were out on China has been stealing research papers from universities & sending them back to China. I leave it to you to do research on how politicians funded by China have a hold on Australian Universities.

Does it end with colleges? No. This goes to workplace and work environment there too. And then, this extended into precious real-estate & military / strategic interests in Pacific Island family. The scale was enormous and did drag attention after ruffling a few feathers.

I feel, it is in this context that Indo-Pacific was actually born. Mainly to thwart the advancing Chinese wedge. You know, the good thing about the wedge? It has to be driven in a particular angle. Chinese have made a wedge. But they are slapping it against the wood. Which won't break the wood! Similarly, they are aggressive diplomatically. But, no one is sure on military. Here, China's adversaries have already started preparing since 2016. Long before China woke up & was busy regulating tourists to countries basis their 'quota' - from Maldives to Australia to Africa. (Trivia: Yes, tourists spending is part of every deal signed by China with every other country as part of BRI. Open source, you can research. It will require one more post on Chinese tourists.) 

Game began in 2015. World was changing. Japan had Abe entering 3rd term. India had a change of guard with PM Modi at the helm. Scott Morrison as Federal Treasurer was getting strict with Chinese. Cancelling some key deals with Chinese in sight. Two key ones worth mentioning would be: 1) Blocking an Ausgrid project linked to Pine Gap. 2) Blocking sale of S. Kidman and Co. 

A special thanks to ASD / ASIO & FIRB officials for stopping such key asset bids / sale to China. Even PM Turnbull wasn't confident of going forward with the recommendations and feared that there'd be a backlash from China. (Widely covered in media.)

Meanwhile, politics played its part & Treasurer Scott Morrison becomes PM Scott Morrison. Blessing in disguise. All along, security cooperation with countries in the region had started - albeit as a soft-launch with India, US & Japan. Australia is still not part of QUAD - militarily. As much, I'd welcome Australia's participation, the threat of China infested security apparatus is still significant. The cleanup is going to take some time & rightly so. Am sure, with the "2020 Defence Strategic Update" - which is a formal roadmap backed up with funds worth A$270 Bn. That's 40% increase of what the "strategic review 2016" promised A$195Bn.

Few weeks ago, China stopped food imports from Australia. And was hoping someone else could sell it to them. This is no loss for Australia. Any purchase from half-way around the globe would invite serious logistical issue in case of war. What would happen when food is getting choked is anyone's guess.

Fast forward mid-July 2020. With such aggressive Chinese moves and the infamous 'chewing gum' comment by Global Times, the process has only got more momentum and motivation to move away from China.

Needless to say, this opportunity will definitely be used by QUAD. There are unconfirmed reports in Indian media that, India plans to invite Australia to join the annual Malabar naval exercise. Hopefully, this time, it would be for real and complete. For it is Australia which can help us create a 'bridge' with Pacific Islands along with Fiji.

Fiji

Frank Bainimarama, especially is key to the pivot on Pacific Island race that is going on. The race is about how to get more of these island nations on their side of the game. The game is between China and US backed allies. Led by Republic of China (Taiwan) and Australia. With India entering the scene, I think, there's more to this. Indian PM's visit to Fiji in 2014 is a milestone and subsequent changes in polity of Fiji is worth mentioning. Why so? Because, Modi & Bainimarama did something unexpected. Invited Heads of State of all 14 Pacific Island nations, for formation of "Forum for India and Pacific Island Countries (FIPIC)" based on India's Africa engagement success story. Constant followup made further improvements. The 2017 India and Pacific Islands Development Conference, for instance.

Tuvalu, Samoa and few other are flipping more than often between China & Democratic nations. Wrong. They should stand with free world and do the right thing. Rest of the world should do all that is possible to stop these small nations falling into the debt trap of China. Unsustainable amounts of monies to these countries would make them colonies of China once & for all. The line should be drawn to stop China far before it leaves shores of Mainland China.

Philippines

Another key partner in this anti-China coalition that is building up, is Philippines. In 2016, Philippines won the ruling in Permanent Court of Arbitration. Until July 12th 2020, Philippines was seen going slow / soft on the ruling. Which emboldened China in its rogue attitude and honing skills of Wolf-warrior diplomacy. Ultimately leading to a failure today. As Philippines did a U-turn on this issue which could dent China's claims in South China Sea. Manila said today that it is not willing to compromise on 2016 ruling. Few days ago, Manila also made another statement. That, India is interested in navigating South China Sea.

Guam (United States)

In 2018, there were some movement about Indian Armed Forces (Airforce & Navy) in Indo-Pacific region. Especially, expansion of its role in Pacific. It was widely reported too. Then, it went out of news cycle. Probably put into backburner. Thanks to China & its arrogance, this re-appeared in last week of June 2020. Now, news is that US is planning to introduce National Defense Authorization Act for 2021. This would now enable Fighter Jet training in Guam, for detachments from Australia, India & Japan.

Chile

On South Pacific, India is doing something very interesting. It is leveraging age old ties with Chile to help counter China. Chile, in all probabilities would be India's pivot to Latin America. The PM Modi - President Pinera meeting of August 2019 might have played well, I guess. October 2019, Chile Announces Cancellation of 2019 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. (That it was a surprise for US is a different story.) Now, fast-forward to April 2020, after being hit badly with China Virus, Chile & Latin American countries in the larger context are moving away from China. Probably, the meeting of August helped Chile sense what is coming for China even before the pandemic. China's fall was written on the wall. Pandemic, just made it faster.

Some news from Chile, on how Indian Private & State owned Arms Manufacturers are preferring Chile.  Indo-Russian JV Brahmos is also invited, is additional story. That means, a bell must have rung. For us, Chile is a pivot for larger South American continent. Hope to see more joint efforts. Wish the participation of Indian Navy in EXPONAVAL 2020 things would move to next level of cooperation.  Hopefully, expect more developments in this regard.

Thanks to China Virus, Democracies have got a golden opportunity to wake up to crude reality & achieve world peace through non-coercive actions based on logic & justice. I am hoping to see a day when Pacific Island nations, Australia, South Korea & Japan - along with India, be part of an unsinkable coalition across Indo-Pacific region making it unsustainable for China-like countries to even have guts to go against Rules Based Order. Any make any offensive moves & threaten people of free world. If this is dubbed as Cold War 2.0, SO BE IT. An example should be made out of China in the coming months & years. Hope to see CCP Politburo members & PLA Generals in International Criminal Court.

UPDATE: Australia approaches UN over claims over South China Sea. In its petition to the UN, Australia rejects China’s “historical claims” in the SCS since they violate international law & the UN's Law of the Sea Australia is also the first country outside the South China Sea region to approach the UN on China’s claims. Read more here.

Must watch / read references:

1) Stratnewsglobal interview with Amb Navdeep Suri (ex Indian envoy to Australia)

2) Australian PM Scott Morrison announces Strategic Update 2020.

3) Philippines Says No Compromise on 2016 Sea Victory Against China

4) India intersted in navigating in the South China Sea

5) US: NDA act seeks fighter jet training detachment for India, Japan, Australia in Guam

6) India - Chile in South Pacific

7) India's strategic expansion in Southern Pacific Islands

Kinetic reaction to China's CCP & PLA

I had written this about Battles of China. In continuation to that, a three factor piece here.

Coming to terms with new military realities

China made an unnecessary & land grab attempt in Galwan valley & few other areas along Line of Actual Control. Probably, China didn't get it. The Galwan valley is under illegal occupation by China since 1962.

Now that it has committed, a cardinal sin, it is making more and more mistakes in defending that cardinal sin. Typical defensive behavior at play. Anyways, I am not going into details of it as it is now well known & well covered in critical / vibrant Indian media. Let us see the motives and how this will unravel going forward.

China, has unfortunately did a mistake, while committing a sin. It has blood of Indian soldiers, no less than a Commanding Officer, who is no less than a father of the fighting military unit. You touch him, you won't know what will hit you. Here, it has killed a Commanding Officer. The rank & file are obviously agitated. Revenge will be served. This is not going unpunished. PLA now getting to know the gravity, is amassing troops in the narrow Galwan Valley. Anyone who wore uniform of a security guard, wouldn't do that. While we all know the capabilities of PLA, but this is a new low. 

I'd call it mindless deployment of troops. I'd refer to the fantastic representation of map shared by Dr Shiv (@bennedose) on Twitter.

Now, Dr Shiv's comments on the logistics route below. The comments are self-explanatory.

With such a way out, we are looking at PLA troops being slaughtered by our combat units. Even a slightest think about what would happen when regular battle hardened infantry troops are unleashed, would be very bad for PLA. Not even talking of Special Forces like Ghataks here.

With IAF in full force at Leh & nearby, we're looking at possible PoW situation for thousands of PLA at the hands of Indian Armed Forces. Better not do drama over this occupation. Basically, they got their timing miserably wrong & peaked too early. 

Chinese Communist Party & all elements of its armed faction, People's Liberation Army should also be told, there is no other option but to just accept China made a mistake & PLA should leave the occupied land to pre-1959 borders. Indian land that PLA should vacate in Ladakh include: Khurnak Fort - Lanak La - South of ridge line of Kunlun Range - Haji Langar - Qara Tagh Pass - Daulat Beg Oldie - Shashgam Valley. Should agree to stop using CPEC, through our sovereign land. All monies that go into Pakistan should stop with immediate effect - including for Business. No money should go without our approval. This is the only way CCP could save its rule over what is currently known as a political entity called People's Republic of China. A no-nonsense, foolproof & unconditional agreement should be signed to this effect and make it a legal document. Which should have a clause with Chinese accepting the mistake & expressing "sorry" for occupation for so long.

Status of Nepal & Pakistan

What would happen to two key states that are currently volatile - Nepal & Pakistan. Nepal is neat & clean. Anything they try to act funny beyond a point, they'll end up losing half their country. If this sounds like a threat, so be it. India is well within its rights to stop another "Tibet" happening next door - again by China. India should use all instruments at its disposal to stop that. I repeat, whatever. China has no business to be in Nepal with a motive to counter India. But then, India don't need to do anything. Nepal is a democracy & its people have a Roti-Beti relationship with India. It is more likely that Nepal would go for election and government change route. Am summarily ignoring PM Oli's artificial map issue. Seems this foolishness is inspired by China. No need to discuss foolishness. India's red line with regards to Nepal is, destroying the thousands of years of spiritual & cultural relationship, for a few quick bucks & that too for some unsustainable Maoist ideology. Having traveled in Nepal, can say, it is as good as rural India. Beautiful & potential untapped. I'd rate the current dispute as one between various Indian States. Not more than that. At the end of day, being from same culture, usually brothers would be together & would talk it out. If need be, course-corrected too. India sees no harm in it. But, do not cross the red line.

On Pakistan, I think, they are tensed. This is where it gets interesting. When news about what is happening at Galwan Valley slowly reached Indian Media, within few hours, there was flurry of activities in Rawalpindi. This includes PM Imran Khan's visit to Office of DG ISI. Surreal event. Another equally important even is the visit by Joint Chiefs of Staffs to the same office. Lastly the recent change in envoys to a few countries than what it was supposed to be. (I leave it to your research on this.) Basically, Pakistan establishment is kinda terrified.

Pakistan, never thought India would look at China, eye-to-eye. Their entire game was based at China is all-weather partner of Pakistan and that if you touch Pakistan, China would come its rescue. Then, the nuclear powers and all that. Now, Galwan has changed all that. Pakistan and its Generals wouldn't have in their wildest of wild dreams have thought that India would touch PLA soldiers. Here, PLA overstepped. Also, when news about CO was killed was out, top brass visited Office of DG ISI, the very next day. This is where pages of history turned. At this junction, China was still learning about the seriousness of the sin its survivors on what "Ghatak" platoons did to their troops at the border. Also from Pakistan which is helping gauge Indian response, which it would be doing for saving its own control of Pakistan Occupied Jammu & Kashmir & Pakistan Occupied Ladakh. Afterall, the partners in crime go together. It'd be useful to learn about Indian Army's PoW experience from only country which availed it.

Also, Pakistan - having worked with China closely, they know how skeletal PLA is, from within. They know the weaknesses more than anyone. This is the reason, I can say, Pakistan is first one to recognize that China would fall the moment India looks at it. Now, India is not just looking at it. But, have locked and waiting to fire. After showing them trial piece, through "Ghataks" (Did the PLA tell Pindi about "Ghatak"signature lethal fist stokes?)

If you ask me, Pakistan would have already begun working on a strategy to deal with a "post-China" situation. Give it to ISI, Pakistan Army does fire bullets and don't run away (like PLA) easily at the first sound of gun shot. (They run only when Khukris are out!) By now, if my guess is right, the way things are going I won't be surprised that Pakistan tries to help China - for a fee, as usual!

It is my prediction, that if war breaks out between India & China, Pakistan would sit out. For two reasons: First, they won't dare to. Secondly, even if they did, no money & don't want to engage India when it is punching above weight. Pakistan stands no chance. But is India interested to fight with Pakistan? As of today, I don't think, there is a need to do that. Looking at their economy & the upcoming FATF sanctions, they'll fall apart as a mini-USSR in the months to come. India can save ammunition, effort, time & money on this. Pakistan will unravel itself. One less problem to deal with.

"The Post" scenario

This brings us to the post-China scenario. If a troubled PLA is sent back even by a few kilometers, it would have far reaching consequences. By miles. First and most immediate one is, their militias get hit back by various stakeholders of South China Sea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Vietnam. One by one, everyone will up their game against China. Even in far away countries of Africa. China would be stretched it its limits. Won't be surprised if even North Korea hits at China at some point. PRC would reach such levels. Soon. I have NO DOUBTS about it. 

This would have effect on the power corridors in Beijing as well. Pressure is increasing & squarely. Dosage increasing by every passing day / week. Probably the reason why they went into a lockdown, post-Galvan, to deter people from entering Beijing, if in worst case PLA loses territory & doesn't want to repeat another Tiannanmen by July 4th (exactly a month later & US Independence Day.)

With the slightest sign of weakening China, EU won WTO case on anti-dumping duties. India on its part, cancelled a 471 Crore project with Indian Railways awarded to a Chinese company. Though clarified that this is not linked to the brutality of PLA at Galwan valley. News abuzz that India is also planning to scrap several such projects. Coupled with a growing resentment among people to stop buying Chinese goods, since the start of China Virus issue in India. This means a lot. A LOT. This is straight hit on Chinese wallets. Their money power would erode in a matter of few weeks or months, if the forex reserves don't improve. CCP can't sustain long in Zhongnanhai.

If CCP wins, Xi Jinping administration is in its last phase. He & his loyalists should start planning their "post" scenario. He has no shortage of enemies within his Party. They'll unseat him themselves. Already, the National Congress is postponed. The successor to Xi Jinping is also not announced yet - which they do 2 years in advance. If Xi Jinping is thinking of staying lifetime, that ain't happening either. It is quite tough. Either he would meet a bad end or would be overthrown or worse, hard labor awaits him.

If CCP doesn't save itself from resentment of people, we are looking at a USSR type disintegration of the political entity which we now know as People's Republic of China. (You may read my earlier blogs to know why I am saying this.) Some of the issues that China has, are unsustainable without a historic destruction of "new evil" in the planet - The CCP & The PLA. Rest everything could be restructured and peace can prevail.

For now, no other way to solve world's problems than to start with mother of all problems, CCP. The map NEED to be changed. If not today, within next 5-7yrs. All occupied lands by the party, needs to be liberated.

Start with India reclaiming all occupied lands & then, Tibet. Free Tibet.

Before I go, for more such organic & original content on China, I suggest the following reads:

i) Faultlines of China

ii) Battles of China

iii) One Debt, One Road - The Silk Road to Debt Trap

iv) Galwan - I

v) Galwan - II

vi) India - China Standoff