Securing India's frontiers - Afghanistan

    Pic Source: military.wikia.org

A series of interlinked & possible scenarios in the coming weeks, months & years through this decade. Of course, this post is limited through publicly available information & hence, not dependent on all moving parts of the geopolitical machinery. Am not writing anything that is not available in public domain.

Few days ago, there was a breaking news. "US vacates Bagram Air Base outside Kabul" To many this is just news that day. What followed was a literally shameful runaway leaving equipment, radars and about 700 vehicles. Worst, they didn't even tell their Afghan counterparts that they're leaving. They just left switching off even the power. Yes, THEY JUST LEFT said local General of ASDF in an interview to WION. This is just running away from battlefield. A perfect defeatist posture, that Taliban wanted from day 1. After about 19 years of bloodshed.

A strange coincidence. Vietnam war lasted little over 19 years. As if history is repeating itself, an equally shameful defeat in Afghanistan for United States is coming up after 19 years of bloodshed. With the act of running away from Afghanistan, US has made sure of one thing. Forcing its allies to talk to Taliban - worst human rights abusers. On second thoughts, US might have just bettered Taliban, that has forced people in Afghanistan to side with Taliban than an elected Afghan Government. (Atleast as per some western media reports). Just pointing how badly a war is fought without a strategy or an objective. Least of all, achieving peace was never in mind. From the start, the very condescending attitude towards local culture was evident and one could say that US would lose the war within days after the fall of Taliban in Kabul.

US lost Afghanistan for just two reasons. First, just like in Vietnam, US won every battle in Afghanistan. But ultimately lost the war. Marines and machines don't win wars. It is maturity that does. You think, rolling tanks into villages would achieve peace in any part of the world. It won't work. US lost the battle that day itself. Secondly, people of Afghanistan are basically tired of war. They need a safe & quality life / future. No bullets. People like Amarullah Saleh, Hashmat Ghani & Atta Nasib should have been given a better role politically - for a few years now. Instead, US tried their best chances with people like Abdullah Abdullah. God bless them.

Securing Afghanistan is very important for the region. India seems to have realized this & started its moves from long ago. Recollect those umpteen visits by the then EAM Sushma Swaraj (I miss her!) and her successor EAM Jaishankar. They seem to have read the act that is coming up for Afghanistan in US. At the time of writing this, rumor is that many warlords have fled to Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. There are also rumors that Taliban is turning against their protector - Pakistani ISI - all along. This change in stance seems to have come after the recent DOUBLE Qatar visits (in June 2021) of EAM Jaishankar. We're indeed talking to the Taliban. Think of Muttawakil type in Delhi! But then, do we have a choice? We're pushed into it by US & West anyways.

As mentioned above, we're forced to talk to Taliban by US now. If not, we'd be faced with a deadly combo of Taliban and a failed state in Pakistan. Funny as it might sound. But back then it used to be said that a stable Pakistan is necessary for a stable Afghanistan. Now, for Pakistan to be safely dismantled we need to keep them busy with Taliban. Or should I say, keep Taliban busy & reduce them to rubble?

On the other hand, the "talks" with Taliban is a win-win for India. Because, it is Taliban who need Indian monetary & political support than we need them. We can have "some" leverage in Afghanistan through Taliban. Better than having none. What if Taliban goes against India in future? Well, don't you think, the visits to Central Asian Countries would have some reason? I leave it at that.

Per western media reports, Taliban is conquering village after village & district after district. But reality is, they're attacking outposts in those places. Yet to see the real deal. Let me give a teaser. The geography of some regions of Afghanistan is such, that it is very difficult to keep supply lines constantly open. Yes, there is a reason why 1000s of Afghan troops crossed into Tajikistan. But, it is not end of road for Afghanistan. By spreading thin, Taliban is risking its very existence. Sending a couple of Toyata Hilux with 10 mercenaries in each pick-up into streets don't make them victor. They need to face real bullets - which will definitely come in the coming days and weeks and months. Let's see if they hold on to it. So, don't fall for the mirage that media is creating that Taliban is winning. They're nowhere close to winning. Even if they do, it is very hard to sustain it. Rookies don't have a place there anymore.

Taliban should not live in la la land. A counterattack WILL come. Afghan Army would not go down without a tough fight. Some media reports do refer to this. If things get worse, some provinces / districts in Northern Afghanistan would see bloody clash. It would be like Northern Syria for sometime. Push would be from two sides for them this time. With US nowhere near them, CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) from Tajikistan side would give a push too. Enter Russia in the scenario. Did you see videos of tank movements from Siberia to Western Regions past few days? Well, relate to this.

IF things turn bloody in Northern Afghanistan, only two possibilities: Either Taliban rookies would be decimated. Or, would be contained to such an extent that they'd surrender themselves. Afghans are basically going to reclaim their land eitherways.

With Afghan threat contained, we come to Pakistan.

The very reason a state like Pakistan should exist should be questioned on three points: Logically, Economically & Strategically. 1) Are they self-sustainable & economically sound? No. They are begging for loans with every single country they meet - even on sidelines of Global events. With a lot of these events going virtual, they are hit quite bad without these sidelines happening. 2) Are they sticking to their reasons basis which they became a 'nation'? No. Had they been, Bangladesh would not have been lost. What is the solution then? Well, let them implode. Next chapter shall follow later. But, let there be no doubt. This would be initiated by India. Let there be no doubt, Pakistan would be dismantled.

The other aspect is, how we operate. When you can see us talking to Taliban, have you noticed how we're talking to Taliban's adversaries too? Likewise, for India to be safe and secure, we need equally secure energy supplies. Here's where we have played well with our options & worked with our strategic partners.

Aftermath:

Recently, there was a discussion at OPEC+. UAE and Saudi fought over a increasing few million barrels of oil. Standoff continues to this day. Possibility being speculated is that UAE might exit OPEC as analyzed by energyintel.com first. Now, being picked up by CNBC. US is trying to broker a peace deal. Why? Petro-dollar economy would crash, if OPEC falls apart. The ramifications of this, would be stark and not easy to see. Many don't want to see this either.

The region has started to prepare for the aftermath of Afghanistan. UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Iran Envoy to UAE discuss "cooperation". Whether this is regarding act in OPEC / OPEC+ or with reference to regional security issues is to be seen. Not much is given in this news report. But, what is surprising is, within 24 hours, Indian External Affairs Minister lands in Tehran and gets audience with no less than the new Iranian President. This is nothing less than a surprise. Such visits don't happen just like that.

Why is this landing in Tehran important? Well, for two reasons: 1) Indian EAM has visited Qatar and has channels Larger picture is that, Indian Minister landed in Tehran while on his way to Moscow. Which is to work on two flanks of Indian security that are under stress.

Russia and UAE are key partners. Russia is predominantly a "counter-balance" for unipolar worldview of US & China in the region. UAE helps with anti-Radical front in the region & that for the world.

An informed guess makes one anticipate possible futureevents due to US actions in Afghanistan: 

1. An exit from Iraq.

2. Ditching of allies in Pacific to defend themselves. Which will enable China to go hyper-aggressive in Asia & even may attempt the Taiwan act. Australia should rise up to the occasion if it happens.

3. China is being stretched to the maximum already. It'll be further weakened by stretching further and a battle in the Pacific Ocean would only worsen their status.

4. It is better if China doesn't attempt any foolish moves before Beijing Olympics 2022. Zhongnanhai knows reasons well.

5. Russia is already talking to partners in ASEAN. Russian FM Lavrov was in Laos.

Conclusion:
With many such events, we are in for very interesting months. A lot is happening far behind limelight. So, Taliban is not winning anything. If at all, it is losing and taking Pakistan with it. Don't fall for cheap western propaganda of NYT type media houses. They even gave space to Taliban for Op-Eds.

Will write another post detailing each of the above mentioned "expected events" and reasons.

Mekong River: The Next Flashpoint in Indo-Pacific

It is right time now to make the pristine, scenic & mighty Mekong river a strategic piece in the Indo-Pacific puzzle. This is of immense importance to India. But, what does India have to lose, in a river that is hundreds of miles away from nearest border outpost? A lot. In fact, we’ve lost a lot already. Time, effort, money and more importantly – lives.

Core issue

Mekong river that has its origins in Tibet. Waters pass through 5 other nations (Myanmar, Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia & Vietnam). The terrain it passes through ranges from cold plateau of Tibet to dense jungles to fertile agricultural lands of Mekong Delta. While playing a crucial role environment, economy & therefore making a direct & indirect impact on lives of, at the very least, 6-7 Crore people.

Where does China come in? China plans to use Mekong river as a trade route for the now infamous signature initiative of General Secretary Xi Jinping: Belt & Road Initiative. Chinese Companies started blasting sections of the river called Pi Long rapids to ‘make it fit’ for cargo ships to transit to & from China through the river.

Strategic importance

Being part of the Indo-Pacific, India has a significant stake in this region. India’s extended neighborhood. In the year 2000, India and five other partner nations (Myanmar, Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia & Vietnam) agreed to form Mekong Ganga Cooperation. This is nothing but, India’s outreach towards East Asia. The “Look East Policy” as Government of India calls it. Under this, a lot of development projects were to be partnered. Including Trans-Asian Highway & Trans-Asian Railway projects. These connectivity projects are far away from debt trap models and are done on partnership basis – free and transparent. No hidden games as that of Belt & Road Initiative. Also, this started much before General Secretary.

It might be slow, but steady. We built only on a “need” basis. No forceful imposing of cosmetic / showcase projects at exorbitant amounts on smaller neighbors. While there is a significant progress in the connectivity projects, there is much to catch up to make deeper economic impact. Many of these small & poor countries are under tighter Chinese influence – economically & strategically. For China, what seemed fine until 2014, suddenly got off rails.

One who has influence over Mekong River, has the sphere of influence over a major chunk of Indo-Pacific theater land mass. The strategic importance is no less than Panama Canal or Suez Canal.

When it comes to Mekong River, two key players are involved. Myanmar – the first nation downstream after Mekong river enters from Yunnan Province of China. Vietnam, which has the Mekong Delta region – the last point before the river flows into the historic Champa Sea – which is part of the Indian cultural sphere, though independent nations. In fact, Mekong holds the unique distinction of flowing through 6 Nations today, which were entirely under Indian cultural sphere of influence. Including Yunnan.

Myanmar

Why Myanmar? Myanmar lies between Andaman Sea / Bay of Bengal and China’s Yunnan province. The shortest land route for cargo & oil from Gulf is via Sittwe – Muse – Kunming. This circumvents the Malacca Straits and Champa Sea issues.

The strategic depth at which China operates to keep a hold on the nations is mindboggling & quite elaborate. On Myanmar, while India itself is helping with cultural, security & political capital. On monetary capital, India has roped in Japan for investments to counter Chinese investments and offer an alternative. The Sino-Japanese rivalry in Myanmar projects is quite well documented.

Just after Myanmar visit of November 2014, ball started rolling faster. After that visit by Myanmar’s State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to Delhi and two-day log meeting with PM Modi, a lot of perception and alignments between two neighbors seem to have changed.

A vision was spelled out by Madam Suu Kyi in her joint press statement during her 2016 Delhi visit. Subsequently, the political & military relations marched forward. In November 2019, two key events happened. First, Myanmar came under heavy criticism & extreme pressure over Rohingya issue. Myanmar was taken to International Criminal Court by Gambia. Not Saudi Arabia or Bangladesh or Indonesia. But, Gambia. Ironically, this is just after a year of Gambia receiving financial assistance from PRC in return for breaking ties with Taiwan.

Second event. Five people were kidnapped by Arakan Army. They were there relating to an India funded construction project in restive Rakhine province. One Indian National (construction worker) died while in AA’s custody. Four others who were also abducted were released safely. While ICC order came in January 2020.

Investigations that followed on a wider issue of Chinese funding & arming insurgents. China was caught red handed by Myanmar. China did sabotage India funded projects in Myanmar. Especially, Trans-Asian Highway / Railway link related projects. And more specifically, the Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Project which is key to connecting India’s North Eastern provinces. Not just that. China did mischief against those who were opposing citing environmental & financial issues that exists in China funded China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) projects in Myanmar.

Pic Source: Wiki Commons

For those who don’t know, Arakan Army is fully funded & armed by China’s PLA directly. Per media reports Ministry of State Security (MSS) supports AA too. On the other hand, Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) is funded by China indirectly through Pakistan’s ISI, per news reports. AA committed some grave human rights violations on Rohingyas. Just like their adversary ARSA did on Hindus and Buddhists. China funds both. ARSA got assistance from Pakistan is a different story. Overall, China supports a lot of terrorist groups in this region. PLA & MSS even funds insurgent groups in India’s North East – which operate training camps in Myanmar’s jungles. Indian Army & Myanmar’s Tatmadaw did a joint strike on these terror camps many times in the past few years. Some of India’s most wanted terrorists are tracked to Yunnan Province of China.

By creating an image of Myanmar as a politically unstable State that is also infested with internal trouble, China made Myanmar look unattractive for foreign investments. Thus, keeping Myanmar under its claws of debt trap. This is double wedged sword. Fact is, China has waged a political, economic & even a sub-conventional proxy war against Myanmar for showing slightest signs of aligning with India – for all peaceful purposes. Myanmar, by now, has understood the game and moved on completely away from Chinese influence. The little influence that we see is also bound to vanish in times to come. The recent meeting between Myanmar’s Military Chief & Indian Defense Minister was the final nail in the coffin. India upped its game in Myanmar and there will be no looking back.

Vietnam

Mekong protection is key to sustaining food basket of South East Asia. Be it freshwater fishing, agriculture or poultry. The bigger problem here is that the fear of this damage being irreversible. Making it impossible for future rejuvenation of this natural habitat of precious flora & fauna.

Development always needs to be sustainable. More importantly, with little to no damage to habitat / ecosystem. Here, we are talking of destroying an entire natural habitat in the middle of a rainforest, for unadulterated greed.

Few months ago, water levels reached a historic low of 1.5meters. Then, worst drought in a century this year. Then, there have been reports of this being the reason for saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta region. Vietnam’s food basket. This is nothing short of environmental emergency that Vietnam was battling along with Pandemic. Currently, due to heavy rains in China, the water levels have risen. And the basin is flooded. This is majorly due to irresponsible / unscientific restricting of the flow of Mekong river water. The issue is well documented in local media. This is the level of environmental impact. Though Vietnam took diplomatic steps to raise this issue with China, it is of little help.

Vietnam’s economic growth trajectory over the past few years has been upwards and quite robust. They’ve pulled out large chunk of their people out of poverty. The Mekong delta region of the country has played a crucial role in this. This region is key to the country’s food security in future too. Such projects might have a deep economic & social impact on the people too.

Cambodia, Lao PDR & Thailand

Cambodia, Lao PDR & Thailand face political & sovereignty issues that are caused due to environmental impact on its people. The issues are very similar to what Vietnam faces. A wave of protests over China’s irresponsible Mekong river projects. Some violent attacks on Chinese workers too. Per one report of Reuters, “Chinese engineers on the Mekong said they were worried that Thai protesters would board the rickety cargo ship where they slept, prompting them to moor it on the Laotian side of the Mekong each night.” Over past few years, “Mekong River is Not for Sale” has become more than a slogan for the locals. This started rumblings at political & geo-political level as Nations were scrambling themselves while unable to speak out against a mighty China. Vietnam is not alone. Story is similar in Thailand and Lao PDR too. The protests had a political bearing on Lao PDR & Thai Governments at various levels. Sovereignty issue.


Pic Source: Flickr

China’s overambitious problem

As it is oft repeated on any issue where China is party to, chances are that, the issue most likely originated in China. This one, has its roots in China after PRC setting itself an ambition to control the region’s waters. It might sound like an allegation, but this is their act elsewhere too. More precisely, this is one of the reasons for PRC’s invasion of Tibet. For example: Mekong River Commission was formed – officially in 1995. The Commission has 4 members out of 6 States through which the river flows, as members. The other two exclusions being Myanmar & Tibet / China.

In 2012, a rival organization was proposed by someone as big as China’s Premier Li Keqiang. The Lancang – Mekong Cooperation. Now that we know the clout China had those days, it must have had little difficulty in getting all 5 States into this organization. Who’d have thought of meeting eye to eye with China those days. Leave alone these small nations saying a “No” for an answer. Especially, when this new LMC was spearheaded by no less than China’s Premier. Within few years, development – China style – started reaching those areas.

If you haven’t noticed, China copied even the name of Mekong Ganga Cooperation – as PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee suggested in 2000. As Premier Li Keqiang suggested in 2012, it is Lancang – Mekong Cooperation. Humility puts one’s interests behind. Hence, India put Ganga AFTER Mekong. Culture matters. Only money, no care for environment, sovereignty or livelihood was given. Problems started.

Course of action

If China’s clout must be curtailed in the region, China’s access to region’s shores must be restricted. Be it Bay of Bengal or Champa Sea. The only other option is through Mekong basin. It is here, that World’s democracies should partner with these small nations that are hit by China’s wolf-warrior diplomacy. Help them create their own wealth using the Mekong river and keep them independent from China.

The way China tricked these small nations; highly doubt they would ever trust China’s intentions ever again. China too knows this. Hence, China used “mischief” as strategy. Beat Myanmar down & tame Vietnam. Unfortunately for China, both strategies failed. With Indo-Pacific region heating up, it won’t be wrong to see many democratic political changes which would help Mekong river flow peacefully. With Vietnam & Myanmar out of China’s sphere of influence, this could happen faster than expected.

India can pace up the initiatives of Mekong Ganga Cooperation – where it was last left and speedup the progress.  First, people to people contact should be made simple & affordable. Second, ease of doing business should be the key driving factor. If Mekong Delta flourishes, India’s North East flourishes too. Lastly, the Mekong Ganga Cooperation project, had a dream to run a passenger train from Delhi / Kolkata to Hanoi. Hopefully, we see it in our lifetime.

A good regional cooperation is the need of the hour. Like ASEAN, there should be an Indo-Pacific grouping which could voice collectively concerns regarding China’s unsustainable ideas. This is more than enough to wealth creation & people movement. This should be done at the earliest before we lose habitat for good. If we don’t stop this, am fully sure nature would reclaim itself.


Note: 
This piece was first published on The Daily Guardian on 30th July 2020. Web version can be accessed here. Epaper of print version can be accessed on Page 7 of the link here.