Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Battles of China

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Came across this Reuters piece. Few unstructured thoughts on this.

If what is written is even 10% possible & China is foolish enough to end up in a conflict, it would end up having a Hiroshima & Nagasaki. If at all anything to happen, it would be around November - closer or worse after elections. If Trump gets re-elected, China would be made to crawl. Remember all the glory would go down. Their best chance for China is to stop war before it happens.

Two parts to my comparison to the WW2 event.

Part - I: On US. 

1. Pearl harbor has happened. We are in the "aftermath" preparation stage, after the Wuhan Corona Virus damage inflicted on humanity.

2. US should protect Taiwan at all costs. 3. Action would be closer to November. Re-election would be on China based. Democrats would foolishly support China and end up being dusted. Only saving grace is, US has a two party system & hence, Democrats would stay anyway. With or without the radical socialist elements. But, mark this. Republicans are here to stay for a very long time. Atleast next 4yrs. 2024, might see a lady President. Tulsi might galvanize support by then as a moderate voice for Democrats. Or worse, she might switch to Republican Party. Just like Trump did.

3. A Republican government or even a moderate Democrat Government would only make things worse.

4. China for now should control its tendencies to intervene in US Presidential Elections. It'll spell doom, forever for both their allies in US and for themselves.

Part - II: On China. 

1. China is all set to face immediate problems on some of their key weak points.

2. These would result in two ways:
  • Contrary to popular wish, IF Xi wins the intra-party battle & comes back with a change of heart. Ultimately leading to democratic China. (HIGHLY unlikely!)
  • Get screwed by the world à People will revolt à Democratic China à End of whatever is left out of communism. (Like USSR.)

3. Come what may, all these would actually have a spillover of sorts, outside PRC. Maybe: Manchuria & North Korea would prefer to join South Korea to form "United Korea", Inner-Mongolia may join Mongolia. Xinjiang & Tibet might be Independent. Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi & Yunnan might join Vietnam. Cambodia, which might see Hun Many take lead & do some course correction. Good luck to Laos. Philippines too might gain territory.

4. The way China is behaving, through its diplomats world over indulging in nothing but thuggery & rowdyism, it would only make the job of rest of the world sooner or later shrink China to what it was pre -1950. It has now reached a critical mass, where it is very tough job to stop map of China from being re-drawn.

5. Thanks to China's thuggery & breach of credibility of International bodies, we may see some major changes to the following organizations: United Nations, World Health Organization, UNICEF, WTO, ILO & UNESCO.

Finally, I leave you with this. Matt Pottinger spoke, in Mandarin, to reach out to people of China directly. (You can read it here.) He makes few pointed observations & comments. I leave it at that.

Conclusion: In the coming weeks & months, world is going to come harder on China & the CCP. Can't see anyone in current polity of China, who can stop it. The world as we knew it, the sand as we saw below our feet, has changed & drifted. We're officially, in uncharted territory.

Update: New York Times has written in detail about WTO. Do read: The W.T.O. Should Be Abolished.