“There will come a day that we will see far more radical
extremists & terrorists coming out of Europe. Because of lack of decision
making, trying to be politically correct or assuming that they know the
Middle-East, they know Islam and they know the others far better than we do. Am
sorry, but that’s pure ignorance.” ~ Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al
Nahyan, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the United
Arab Emirates at 4th Tweeps Forum at Riyadh in 2016.
The words of the Minister left many West Asia watchers stunned. Especially from
Europe and US. This gave a sneak preview into that paradigm shift that is about
to come in the next few years. Looking back at how things went, the reaction
seems quite justified. Many times, people get confused on what is going on, in
Arab world. It is public perception that everyone is fighting everyone there.
But then, the devil is in the fine print. The wars are moving up north and
closer to Europe.
The war is slowly revealing the real enemy. The radicals.
The pattern is evident. Whoever tolerates others, would survive. Rest would be
decimated brutally. This is the pattern, from Saudi Arabia to Iran and everyone
in-between. Globally too. Radicals are being crushed left right center.
Basically, music is stopping for radicals. They better mend their ways. This is
exposing the game of those real radicals, those that are with power. With many
magic hands shaping the feat of peacemaking from behind. Some are so important
catalyst in the equation that is taking shape, that we simply can’t ignore
them. Indian Government for example.
Many actions that seemed impossible few years ago, are taking shape right now.
It might sound totally disconnected. But, scratch a few layers, you would
understand the tacit support that made it possible. In a way, the support has
to be seen with transactional barter with a tinge of civilizational links. The
way things are moving, we are expecting a non-radicalized Islam in West Asia, which
would take path of becoming soft power in years to come. Giving importance to
knowledge and contribute to human advancement. There are few well written
pieces on New York Times on Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Zayed a.k.a MBZ.
Few months ago, was it even possible to think of an Israel –
UAE peace treaty? Few good men made it happen. And the effort was regional
effort. Many bad apples were cornered.
What we know today is that Turkey wants to become a
trans-Asian Nation – like USSR. Raccip Tayyip Erdogan is trying to make an
impact and influence states from Armenia and Cyprus to the West to Xinjiang in
the east. He claims all of it. His hypocrisy can be best explained in one
single statement. That is, while condemning Chinese illegal detention of
Uyghurs in Xinjiang, he deports them back to Beijing via a third country. There
are media reports on this. Just one problem here. Arabs would oppose this idea
tooth and nail. Result: We’re seeing opposition to Turkey growing stronger and
stronger day by day. Therefore, Azerbaijan – Armenia war got complicated with
Turkey’s involvement. This is where the UAE led alliance (with almost all of
GCC members) is in effect an anti-Turkey & anti-radical. This is where
everyone else are seen working out their differences in the region, to take on
Turkey.
One after another, Arab states would embrace Israel as a long-lost
cousin. Palestine would ultimately choose to be Israel’s friend in the region.
Change is inevitable.
On the European side, with President Macron not in a mood to
relent on radicals domestically and giving a tough resistance to Turkey and is
taking them heads on across the region – from Cyprus to Armenia to Qatar &
Libya, things are only looking bad for Turkey & more specifically Erdogan.
Ultimately spreading thin the money, effort and troops from Cyprus to Libya to
Syria to Azerbaijan. Over past few months, US & Israel started moving away
from Turkey. EU has announced that it stands by France in case there is a flare
up leading to France vs Turkey in Europe or elsewhere.
It is in this context that it is rather surprising that Erdogan is not seeing
what is coming up for him & people whom he supports in due course. Ever
wondered why there was little to no ISIS in UAE, Jordan & Oman? Think about
it.
As they say it takes few good men to change future. Her too,
few good men stood up to radicalism & are making a huge difference to lives
of common people from that community. And they have full support from Indian
Government along with key partners of GCC. From prospect of doom, Arab Nations
are today seeing ray of hope.
Our policy towards Gulf countries hasn’t changed much since
1960s. We say ups and downs together in business. But one thing stood out.
There was a parallel track encouraging each other’s development – beyond
religion and business. Take for example UAE. It stood with us – like France,
when we did nuclear tests in 1970s.
At this point, we can only observe from grandstand those key discussions have
indeed deeper understandings with New Delhi. We can certainly note that the
meetings, summits and visits of the leaders of the region gives you good
insight. Arab nations, seem to have understood the meaning behind the 2014
mandate for PM Modi.
First two years of PM Modi was dedicated to immediate
neighbors. Though successful to a certain extent, things moved to extended
neighborhood in the following years. France & UAE are the two nations it
went to woo very deep. French President was invited as Chief Guest to 2016
Republic Day. Following year, UAE’s Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Zayed was
invited. Within few months, as if it was waiting next to be catapulted, MBZ was
invited to White House in May 2017. This was a week before President Trump was
to visit Saudi Arabia. A month later, in June 2017, Modi visits White House.
Then, in July 2017, Modi makes the historic Israel visit. First ever by Indian
PM. Few months later in 2018, Modi visited Palestine. And, while coming back to
Delhi, PM Modi met Sultan Qaboos, one of the key architects of what is shaping
West Asia today. Not many know that Sultan Qaboos is anti-radical and has kept
Oman free of radicals. Meanwhile, India has been inviting troops from Oman and
training them. It is not out of thin air that Israel was able to normalize
relations with its neighbors. Jordan, Oman, Saudi & UAE along with India
played a huge role in it.
(Source: LSEBlogs.com)
Meanwhile, latest that India has said at UN is this: “India been unwavering in its commitment to the Palestinian cause & continues to remain supportive of a peacefully negotiated resolution to the issue; India has supported the two-State solution as just & acceptable. We welcome the agreements for normalization of relations b/w Israel and UAE & Bahrain. India has always supported peace & stability in West Asia, which is our extended neighborhood: Permanent Representative of India at UN Security Council open debate on situation in Middle East.”
This is indication that India, would treat Israel as an equal to Palestine. Fair & just. This changes a lot of things. India has created a space also to be critical of terrorist attacks emanating from Palestine. What is worth noticing is that, since UAE & Bahrain normalized relations with Israel, and that Saudi Arabia and few other nations might follow suit soon, the rocket attacks have ceased. Reason solely being the loss of protection they used to get riding anti-Israel wave. Now, the Palestine State would have to be formed. Not after weapons and terror attacks. But, through dialogue.
While GCC is doing its bit to contain radicals from the region, France is acting against radical ideology from Turkey & Lebanon and stopping them from entering Europe, US & Russia are acting against ISIS. India has its own trouble domestically through Pakistan funded radicals. Afghanistan is fighting its own battle. Rest of the world is busy with Chinese support to radicals across these non-civil states that propagates radicals.
Turkey may also stop propagating expansionism and come to real world. Laying claim to lands as far as Xinjiang when Turkish military is stretched from Cyprus to Libya to Azerbaijan to Syria, not sure if Erdogan is right person to lead a nation. Erdogan’s single biggest contribution to Turkey is that of turning a once liberal nation which acted as a bridge between Europe & Asia, into a radical theocracy without any room for reasonable opposition in a democratic setup.
Conclusion is that, going forward, there would be no place
for radicals in this world. All those radicals in the region, Taliban or
Pakistan supported terrorists or ISIS or anyone else who fall into that
category anywhere in the world in general, won’t survive longer than a couple
of years. Writing is on the wall. Better mend your ways. India, US, France, UAE
& Saudi Arabia have understood the reasons and are indeed trying to make
world a better place. India and other like-minded free nations are in support
of this great effort. Hopefully, we shall have a much better world in the
coming years.
