Securing India's frontiers - Afghanistan

    Pic Source: military.wikia.org

A series of interlinked & possible scenarios in the coming weeks, months & years through this decade. Of course, this post is limited through publicly available information & hence, not dependent on all moving parts of the geopolitical machinery. Am not writing anything that is not available in public domain.

Few days ago, there was a breaking news. "US vacates Bagram Air Base outside Kabul" To many this is just news that day. What followed was a literally shameful runaway leaving equipment, radars and about 700 vehicles. Worst, they didn't even tell their Afghan counterparts that they're leaving. They just left switching off even the power. Yes, THEY JUST LEFT said local General of ASDF in an interview to WION. This is just running away from battlefield. A perfect defeatist posture, that Taliban wanted from day 1. After about 19 years of bloodshed.

A strange coincidence. Vietnam war lasted little over 19 years. As if history is repeating itself, an equally shameful defeat in Afghanistan for United States is coming up after 19 years of bloodshed. With the act of running away from Afghanistan, US has made sure of one thing. Forcing its allies to talk to Taliban - worst human rights abusers. On second thoughts, US might have just bettered Taliban, that has forced people in Afghanistan to side with Taliban than an elected Afghan Government. (Atleast as per some western media reports). Just pointing how badly a war is fought without a strategy or an objective. Least of all, achieving peace was never in mind. From the start, the very condescending attitude towards local culture was evident and one could say that US would lose the war within days after the fall of Taliban in Kabul.

US lost Afghanistan for just two reasons. First, just like in Vietnam, US won every battle in Afghanistan. But ultimately lost the war. Marines and machines don't win wars. It is maturity that does. You think, rolling tanks into villages would achieve peace in any part of the world. It won't work. US lost the battle that day itself. Secondly, people of Afghanistan are basically tired of war. They need a safe & quality life / future. No bullets. People like Amarullah Saleh, Hashmat Ghani & Atta Nasib should have been given a better role politically - for a few years now. Instead, US tried their best chances with people like Abdullah Abdullah. God bless them.

Securing Afghanistan is very important for the region. India seems to have realized this & started its moves from long ago. Recollect those umpteen visits by the then EAM Sushma Swaraj (I miss her!) and her successor EAM Jaishankar. They seem to have read the act that is coming up for Afghanistan in US. At the time of writing this, rumor is that many warlords have fled to Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. There are also rumors that Taliban is turning against their protector - Pakistani ISI - all along. This change in stance seems to have come after the recent DOUBLE Qatar visits (in June 2021) of EAM Jaishankar. We're indeed talking to the Taliban. Think of Muttawakil type in Delhi! But then, do we have a choice? We're pushed into it by US & West anyways.

As mentioned above, we're forced to talk to Taliban by US now. If not, we'd be faced with a deadly combo of Taliban and a failed state in Pakistan. Funny as it might sound. But back then it used to be said that a stable Pakistan is necessary for a stable Afghanistan. Now, for Pakistan to be safely dismantled we need to keep them busy with Taliban. Or should I say, keep Taliban busy & reduce them to rubble?

On the other hand, the "talks" with Taliban is a win-win for India. Because, it is Taliban who need Indian monetary & political support than we need them. We can have "some" leverage in Afghanistan through Taliban. Better than having none. What if Taliban goes against India in future? Well, don't you think, the visits to Central Asian Countries would have some reason? I leave it at that.

Per western media reports, Taliban is conquering village after village & district after district. But reality is, they're attacking outposts in those places. Yet to see the real deal. Let me give a teaser. The geography of some regions of Afghanistan is such, that it is very difficult to keep supply lines constantly open. Yes, there is a reason why 1000s of Afghan troops crossed into Tajikistan. But, it is not end of road for Afghanistan. By spreading thin, Taliban is risking its very existence. Sending a couple of Toyata Hilux with 10 mercenaries in each pick-up into streets don't make them victor. They need to face real bullets - which will definitely come in the coming days and weeks and months. Let's see if they hold on to it. So, don't fall for the mirage that media is creating that Taliban is winning. They're nowhere close to winning. Even if they do, it is very hard to sustain it. Rookies don't have a place there anymore.

Taliban should not live in la la land. A counterattack WILL come. Afghan Army would not go down without a tough fight. Some media reports do refer to this. If things get worse, some provinces / districts in Northern Afghanistan would see bloody clash. It would be like Northern Syria for sometime. Push would be from two sides for them this time. With US nowhere near them, CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) from Tajikistan side would give a push too. Enter Russia in the scenario. Did you see videos of tank movements from Siberia to Western Regions past few days? Well, relate to this.

IF things turn bloody in Northern Afghanistan, only two possibilities: Either Taliban rookies would be decimated. Or, would be contained to such an extent that they'd surrender themselves. Afghans are basically going to reclaim their land eitherways.

With Afghan threat contained, we come to Pakistan.

The very reason a state like Pakistan should exist should be questioned on three points: Logically, Economically & Strategically. 1) Are they self-sustainable & economically sound? No. They are begging for loans with every single country they meet - even on sidelines of Global events. With a lot of these events going virtual, they are hit quite bad without these sidelines happening. 2) Are they sticking to their reasons basis which they became a 'nation'? No. Had they been, Bangladesh would not have been lost. What is the solution then? Well, let them implode. Next chapter shall follow later. But, let there be no doubt. This would be initiated by India. Let there be no doubt, Pakistan would be dismantled.

The other aspect is, how we operate. When you can see us talking to Taliban, have you noticed how we're talking to Taliban's adversaries too? Likewise, for India to be safe and secure, we need equally secure energy supplies. Here's where we have played well with our options & worked with our strategic partners.

Aftermath:

Recently, there was a discussion at OPEC+. UAE and Saudi fought over a increasing few million barrels of oil. Standoff continues to this day. Possibility being speculated is that UAE might exit OPEC as analyzed by energyintel.com first. Now, being picked up by CNBC. US is trying to broker a peace deal. Why? Petro-dollar economy would crash, if OPEC falls apart. The ramifications of this, would be stark and not easy to see. Many don't want to see this either.

The region has started to prepare for the aftermath of Afghanistan. UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Iran Envoy to UAE discuss "cooperation". Whether this is regarding act in OPEC / OPEC+ or with reference to regional security issues is to be seen. Not much is given in this news report. But, what is surprising is, within 24 hours, Indian External Affairs Minister lands in Tehran and gets audience with no less than the new Iranian President. This is nothing less than a surprise. Such visits don't happen just like that.

Why is this landing in Tehran important? Well, for two reasons: 1) Indian EAM has visited Qatar and has channels Larger picture is that, Indian Minister landed in Tehran while on his way to Moscow. Which is to work on two flanks of Indian security that are under stress.

Russia and UAE are key partners. Russia is predominantly a "counter-balance" for unipolar worldview of US & China in the region. UAE helps with anti-Radical front in the region & that for the world.

An informed guess makes one anticipate possible futureevents due to US actions in Afghanistan: 

1. An exit from Iraq.

2. Ditching of allies in Pacific to defend themselves. Which will enable China to go hyper-aggressive in Asia & even may attempt the Taiwan act. Australia should rise up to the occasion if it happens.

3. China is being stretched to the maximum already. It'll be further weakened by stretching further and a battle in the Pacific Ocean would only worsen their status.

4. It is better if China doesn't attempt any foolish moves before Beijing Olympics 2022. Zhongnanhai knows reasons well.

5. Russia is already talking to partners in ASEAN. Russian FM Lavrov was in Laos.

Conclusion:
With many such events, we are in for very interesting months. A lot is happening far behind limelight. So, Taliban is not winning anything. If at all, it is losing and taking Pakistan with it. Don't fall for cheap western propaganda of NYT type media houses. They even gave space to Taliban for Op-Eds.

Will write another post detailing each of the above mentioned "expected events" and reasons.

Radicals Are On The Verge Of Being Radically Ruined

“There will come a day that we will see far more radical extremists & terrorists coming out of Europe. Because of lack of decision making, trying to be politically correct or assuming that they know the Middle-East, they know Islam and they know the others far better than we do. Am sorry, but that’s pure ignorance.” ~ Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the United Arab Emirates at 4^th Tweeps Forum at Riyadh in 2016.

The words of the Minister left many West Asia watchers stunned. Especially from Europe and US. This gave a sneak preview into that paradigm shift that is about to come in the next few years. Looking back at how things went, the reaction seems quite justified. Many times, people get confused on what is going on, in Arab world. It is public perception that everyone is fighting everyone there. But then, the devil is in the fine print. The wars are moving up north and closer to Europe.

The war is slowly revealing the real enemy. The radicals. The pattern is evident. Whoever tolerates others, would survive. Rest would be decimated brutally. This is the pattern, from Saudi Arabia to Iran and everyone in-between. Globally too. Radicals are being crushed left right center. Basically, music is stopping for radicals. They better mend their ways. This is exposing the game of those real radicals, those that are with power. With many magic hands shaping the feat of peacemaking from behind. Some are so important catalyst in the equation that is taking shape, that we simply can’t ignore them. Indian Government for example.

Many actions that seemed impossible few years ago, are taking shape right now. It might sound totally disconnected. But, scratch a few layers, you would understand the tacit support that made it possible. In a way, the support has to be seen with transactional barter with a tinge of civilizational links. The way things are moving, we are expecting a non-radicalized Islam in West Asia, which would take path of becoming soft power in years to come. Giving importance to knowledge and contribute to human advancement. There are few well written pieces on New York Times on Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Zayed a.k.a MBZ.

Few months ago, was it even possible to think of an Israel – UAE peace treaty? Few good men made it happen. And the effort was regional effort. Many bad apples were cornered.

What we know today is that Turkey wants to become a trans-Asian Nation – like USSR. Raccip Tayyip Erdogan is trying to make an impact and influence states from Armenia and Cyprus to the West to Xinjiang in the east. He claims all of it. His hypocrisy can be best explained in one single statement. That is, while condemning Chinese illegal detention of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, he deports them back to Beijing via a third country. There are media reports on this. Just one problem here. Arabs would oppose this idea tooth and nail. Result: We’re seeing opposition to Turkey growing stronger and stronger day by day. Therefore, Azerbaijan – Armenia war got complicated with Turkey’s involvement. This is where the UAE led alliance (with almost all of GCC members) is in effect an anti-Turkey & anti-radical. This is where everyone else are seen working out their differences in the region, to take on Turkey.

One after another, Arab states would embrace Israel as a long-lost cousin. Palestine would ultimately choose to be Israel’s friend in the region. Change is inevitable.

On the European side, with President Macron not in a mood to relent on radicals domestically and giving a tough resistance to Turkey and is taking them heads on across the region – from Cyprus to Armenia to Qatar & Libya, things are only looking bad for Turkey & more specifically Erdogan. Ultimately spreading thin the money, effort and troops from Cyprus to Libya to Syria to Azerbaijan. Over past few months, US & Israel started moving away from Turkey. EU has announced that it stands by France in case there is a flare up leading to France vs Turkey in Europe or elsewhere.

It is in this context that it is rather surprising that Erdogan is not seeing what is coming up for him & people whom he supports in due course. Ever wondered why there was little to no ISIS in UAE, Jordan & Oman? Think about it.

As they say it takes few good men to change future. Her too, few good men stood up to radicalism & are making a huge difference to lives of common people from that community. And they have full support from Indian Government along with key partners of GCC. From prospect of doom, Arab Nations are today seeing ray of hope.

Our policy towards Gulf countries hasn’t changed much since 1960s. We say ups and downs together in business. But one thing stood out. There was a parallel track encouraging each other’s development – beyond religion and business. Take for example UAE. It stood with us – like France, when we did nuclear tests in 1970s.

At this point, we can only observe from grandstand those key discussions have indeed deeper understandings with New Delhi. We can certainly note that the meetings, summits and visits of the leaders of the region gives you good insight. Arab nations, seem to have understood the meaning behind the 2014 mandate for PM Modi.

First two years of PM Modi was dedicated to immediate neighbors. Though successful to a certain extent, things moved to extended neighborhood in the following years. France & UAE are the two nations it went to woo very deep. French President was invited as Chief Guest to 2016 Republic Day. Following year, UAE’s Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Zayed was invited. Within few months, as if it was waiting next to be catapulted, MBZ was invited to White House in May 2017. This was a week before President Trump was to visit Saudi Arabia. A month later, in June 2017, Modi visits White House. Then, in July 2017, Modi makes the historic Israel visit. First ever by Indian PM. Few months later in 2018, Modi visited Palestine. And, while coming back to Delhi, PM Modi met Sultan Qaboos, one of the key architects of what is shaping West Asia today. Not many know that Sultan Qaboos is anti-radical and has kept Oman free of radicals. Meanwhile, India has been inviting troops from Oman and training them. It is not out of thin air that Israel was able to normalize relations with its neighbors. Jordan, Oman, Saudi & UAE along with India played a huge role in it.

(Source: LSEBlogs.com)

Meanwhile, latest that India has said at UN is this: “India been unwavering in its commitment to the Palestinian cause & continues to remain supportive of a peacefully negotiated resolution to the issue; India has supported the two-State solution as just & acceptable. We welcome the agreements for normalization of relations b/w Israel and UAE & Bahrain. India has always supported peace & stability in West Asia, which is our extended neighborhood: Permanent Representative of India at UN Security Council open debate on situation in Middle East.”

This is indication that India, would treat Israel as an equal to Palestine. Fair & just. This changes a lot of things. India has created a space also to be critical of terrorist attacks emanating from Palestine. What is worth noticing is that, since UAE & Bahrain normalized relations with Israel, and that Saudi Arabia and few other nations might follow suit soon, the rocket attacks have ceased. Reason solely being the loss of protection they used to get riding anti-Israel wave. Now, the Palestine State would have to be formed. Not after weapons and terror attacks. But, through dialogue.

While GCC is doing its bit to contain radicals from the region, France is acting against radical ideology from Turkey & Lebanon and stopping them from entering Europe, US & Russia are acting against ISIS. India has its own trouble domestically through Pakistan funded radicals. Afghanistan is fighting its own battle. Rest of the world is busy with Chinese support to radicals across these non-civil states that propagates radicals.

Turkey may also stop propagating expansionism and come to real world. Laying claim to lands as far as Xinjiang when Turkish military is stretched from Cyprus to Libya to Azerbaijan to Syria, not sure if Erdogan is right person to lead a nation. Erdogan’s single biggest contribution to Turkey is that of turning a once liberal nation which acted as a bridge between Europe & Asia, into a radical theocracy without any room for reasonable opposition in a democratic setup.

Conclusion is that, going forward, there would be no place for radicals in this world. All those radicals in the region, Taliban or Pakistan supported terrorists or ISIS or anyone else who fall into that category anywhere in the world in general, won’t survive longer than a couple of years. Writing is on the wall. Better mend your ways. India, US, France, UAE & Saudi Arabia have understood the reasons and are indeed trying to make world a better place. India and other like-minded free nations are in support of this great effort. Hopefully, we shall have a much better world in the coming years.

Note: This piece was first published on The Daily Guardian on 28th October 2020. Web version can be accessed here. Epaper of print version can be accessed in the link here.

Silent Chinese Invasion of Australia

Pic source: Wikipedia

If there’s one country that is subverted the most through democratic ways & processes, it is Australia. Using free speech & through power, Australian system was undermined. This is not even an understatement.

When Federal Government of Australia said “no” to Belt & Road Initiative, China was hurt & considered it an insult. So, China made its moves to teach Australia a lesson. It made an infrastructure funding offer to Premier of a Province of Australia that one can’t refuse. All he needs to do is, override Australian Federal Government policy and join BRI. And it happened. In 2018, premier Daniel Andrews signed Memorandum of Understanding with China. Premier was even boasting about it. Per TheGuardian.com news report, Premier said, “In four years we have more than tripled Victoria’s share of Chinese investment in Australia and nearly doubled our exports to China. We said we’d reboot our relationship with China and we’re getting it done.” Mind you, in Australia, Premier is like a Chief Minister of India. Final authority on Foreign policy is Federal Government, like our Union Government. So, this invited problems, for the Premier. Coalition partners raised concerns. While nobody is against investments that would come into the Province, Premier was asked just one question. That is, “Why is only Victoria overriding Federal Government’s Foreign Policy?” PM Scott Morrison had warned Premier Daniel Andrews, “Victoria was stepping into federal government policy territory.” There is no closure to this issue, just yet.

It all started few years before Premier Andrews with former Premier John Brumby of Labor Party in Victoria. On 27^th July 2007, quite dramatically, the then Premier Steve Bracks announced his retirement from politics, citing family reasons. Quite dramatic. Few hours later, Deputy Premier John Thwaites also announced his resignation. Three days later, was elected unopposed as leader. Thus, Premier John Brumby. Three years later, he resigned from Parliament. Fast forward by 3 years. What is interesting is that the former Premier took up an assignment at a University. While Premier Andrews took care of the party. Making groundwork for his Premiership few years later. Post-resignation former Premier Brumby took up some very interesting assignments. Apart from openly advocating & professing a pro-China stand, he also took up key assignments in Universities that got huge amounts Chinese funding. Especially, Monash University & University of Melbourne. University of Melbourne received donations under Australia – China Science Research Fund (ACSRF). The same ACSRF was announced by no less than Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in 2017 during his visit. Former Premier Brumby later became President of Australia – China Business Council (ACBC). And, icing on the cake, became a Director of Huawei. Until recently, Brumby was batting for Huawei 5G in Victoria. Until PM Scott Morrison unleashed his federal powers after US Secretary of State Pompeo warned about using Huawei in any networks of Australia which would invite all the communications channels with US to close. After futile efforts, Brumby resigned from Huawei in February 2019.

News reports of May & June suggest that Victoria is also been accused of undermining Federal Government’s response to Wuhan Virus Pandemic. As recent as 1^st August 2020, there are reports of Premier Daniel Andrews is busy fighting controversy over irregularities in hotel quarantine during the pandemic. Some recent media reports in The Age suggest that the Government of Victoria under Premier Andrews might face unintended consequences due to this. That would be one more step towards cleaning Chinese influence in Victoria.

Darwin Port

The 99-year lease of the most strategic port of Darwin in Norther Territory turned controversial. The aftermath of the bid was messy.  While it is now known that the Shandong Landbridge Group’s subsidiary in Australia Landbridge Group’s bid value is A$506Mn, not much is known about the competitors – European & American bidders. China ultimately won the bid. So, how did China pull this off? A loophole based on spirit of Democracy. Per Senate Committee of 2016, Federal Investment Review Board (FIRB) for review. But, was never formally investigated. Because, law doesn’t require formal review when a State or Territory is involved with a private company. This was a simple rule in the spirit of trust. Exploited by China. Thanks to PM Scott Morrison, Australia changed this exemption in 2016. In the recently concluded AUSMIN talks last week, it has been decided that there’d be a US funded military fuel storage facility in Darwin Harbor, as Darwin port is leased to Chinese company. Up to Chinese if they want to still stay there for next nine decades.

Subversion of Free speech

All the above, this all happened through completely democratic process. Then comes the Curious case of Chinese students. Just like in US, Chinese students when in Australian Universities, are used as diplomatic weapon by local Chinese diplomats. Here they have a different role. Like, pushing CCP’s narrative on political matters like Taiwan, Uyghurs & others. For example, in 2017, an Indian Professor of Sydney University, had to apologize for showing map of India. Why? Because Chinese students disputed that some of the regions are of China’s. So much so, that on 70^th Independence Day Chinese students in Sydney drove luxury cars across popular places in the city.

In May 2020, Mr Drew Pavlou was suspended from University of Queensland for two years following a disciplinary hearing that examined allegations of misconduct linked to his on-campus activism. What activism? He supported Hong Kong protests and criticized Chinese Communist Party. It only ended up scrutinizing more UQ’s record. From funding of top executives of the University to leaking controversial course materials online. UQ ended up doing more damage to itself, than it tried to prevent for Beijing. Per News.com.au reports, the involvement of Confucius Institute – CCP’s propaganda arm – in funding & designing courses is significant. While it helped Beijing narrative to be peddled through University of Queensland, it didn’t last. Australian High Commissioner to UK George Brandis replied to British MP Andrew Rosindell on this matter expressing that events in UQ “greatly saddens” as it is also his alumnus. Of course, there were online outrage too. To this day.

To think of using students & Universities as a pawn to further your political agenda is something no civilized country would do. But, CCP should think twice before doing such things. Do remember, even in democratic countries, we can treat such acts by ‘students’ as waging war against sovereign nations. If say, a significant number of them are taken in for questioning and subversive acts, how long would it take before it creates uproar in Weibo? Would the single kid parents be able to take the hit? Would the friends of those who are being taken in be affected and would turn against CCP for not helping? This is surely going to backfire in near future.

There have been some elements in Australian media as well which pally around with Communist Party. Take for example the media coverage went full on anti-PM Scott Morrison when the bushfires were happening, look at the coverage. Thanks to tycoons like Andrew Forrest who tried to pull a fast one for CCP, at the cost of embarrassing Australian Health Minister by helping Chinese Counsel General gatecrash a press conference that the Minister was supposed to address. A Chinese diplomat gatecrashing. When Federal Government said that Google & Facebook must pay media houses for sharing their content on their platforms, they are right. This is only language that tech companies understand and stop giving free leverage to Confucius thoughts in democratic societies.

Strategic response by Australia

Strategically, the Chinese communist party threat has brought Australia closer to its other neighbors. Taking all the security objectives into account, PM Scott Morrison started working on “2016 Australian Defense Whitepaper” & more importantly also made it a point to back it up with funds. Four years & a Pandemic later, “Australia Defence Strategic Update 2020” was released recently. With a huge hike from the earlier announced budget boost of A$270Bn for investments over next 10 years. Apart from weapons, what interests is the transformation outlined for Australian Army – to a more US Marines kind of role for the future.

Australian Defence Minister recently announced, “I Am Open To Exploring The Trilateral Cooperation With India, Indonesia & Other Countries In Our Region.” This is significant and adds more teeth to Indo-Pacific alliance. It is worth noting two points here. A) Indonesia said recently that it wants to buy Austria’s entire Typhoon fighter fleet. B) Times of India reported last week that India might be interested to sell Brahmos to Indonesia. Meanwhile, Philippines & Vietnam are already in talks with India for the same. In due course, Australia would indeed be part of QUAD participating in Military Exercises. To take it further Solomon Yue, Vice Chairman & CEO at Republicans Overseas, RNC, in his interview to Epoch Times answering a question about threat of China in Australia said that, India & Japan might be invited to join the Five Eyes (FVEY) alliance. To make it Seven Eyes. He didn’t give a timeline for this though. Not sure if India is interested in this either.

Australia has additional responsibility of taking care of Pacific Islands & prevent them from falling into Debt trap of China. It is here, that India can help diplomatically, via Fiji. India can play a crucial role here in alliance with Australia. Meanwhile, US is contemplating about opening training facilities at Guam for Air Forces of India, Australia & Japan. If it happens it’ll send an important message to Australia’s partners in South East Asia & Pacific regions. It is to keep a close eye on dynamic scenarios emerging in South Pacific Islands too. It is in the above context that PM Scott Morrison spoke specifically about capabilities in areas such as long-range strike weapons, cyber capabilities and area-denial systems to maintain regional peace & stability. PM Scott Morrison is a blessing for Australia & is a great ally for India against China & beyond in the region.

The Reaction

So, in a nutshell, to get BRI & Huawei in Victoria, set sovereign democratic processes were subverted. Utter disregard to rules-based world order and natural justice system, by Chinese Communist Party is not going to do any good. China thinks it has come a long way, from rule abiding to rule makers. It has now started to thwart democracies around the world by turning our strengths to weakness. This shouldn’t be allowed at any cost. Powers that be, should be very focused on thwarting such threats. If China can do this much on weaknesses of Democracies, a few countries together can put down China through its fault-lines manifold. While I pity for the Chinese people, who has undergone worst under CCP, the CCP mafia should not be let to freely roam in this world. Seize their assets. World has had enough.


Note:
This piece was first published on The Daily Guardian on 6th August 2020. Web version can be accessed here. Epaper of print version can be accessed on Page 7 of the link here.